The surging Nuggets look for a rare win in Portland when they pay the Blazers a visit on Wednesday night.
Line: Denver -2.5, Total: 209.5
Track Line Changes
The Blazers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS at home against Denver since the start of the 2008-09 season. That includes SU wins in each of the past six games these teams have played in Portland, the most recent of which was a 101-93 victory on Dec. 23. The Nuggets could be without the services of SF Danilo Gallinari, the team’s leading scorer at 16.9 PPG, who sat out Monday’s home win over the Lakers with a bruised left thigh. While Denver’s offense has exploded in their past two games (both wins), scoring 116.0 PPG on 55% FG, the Blazers have scored just 90.0 PPG on 42% FG in their past four contests, and have lost seven of their past eight games (2-6 ATS). A trend that heavily favors Denver on Wednesday is that high-scoring favorites (102+ PPG) playing an average offense (92-98 PPG) after reaching 110+ points in three straight games are a hefty 27-6 ATS (82%) in the past five seasons. The Nuggets are coming off an 11-point victory over the Lakers, and are usually a great wager after a big win too, as they are 23-10 ATS (70%) on the road in the past three seasons after a double-digit victory, and 21-14 ATS (67%) after any SU win this season.
Denver’s offense moves quickly, attempting the second-most shots (85.2 FGA per game) and scoring the league’s third-most points (105.4 PPG). This frantic pace forces the Nuggets to commit the sixth-most turnovers in the NBA (14.7 TOPG), but they also dish out 24.1 APG (3rd in league) and are active defensively with 8.8 SPG (2nd in NBA). Denver can also body-up on the boards with anybody, pulling down 45.2 RPG this season (2nd in the NBA). SF Danilo Gallinari (16.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG) had just 6.0 PPG (4-for-8 FG) in his past two games before missing Monday’s contest with a thigh bruise. He is questionable to suit up on Wednesday, but his team sure wants him on the court as Gallinari scored 25 points the last time the Nuggets faced the Blazers and is averaging 19.4 PPG over his past five meetings with Portland. PG Ty Lawson (16.4 PPG, 7.1 APG) has been on a scoring tear in his past seven contests, tallying 20+ points in every game, and averaging 25.6 PPG (53% FG, 39% threes) and 8.3 APG during this stretch. In the past two seasons, Lawson has 19.2 PPG (52% FG) and 7.4 APG in five meetings with Portland, including 24 points and 12 assists when these teams last met on Jan. 15, a 115-111 Blazers victory. SG Andre Iguodala (13.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.9 APG) is finally over his neck injury, posting an outstanding 13.5 PPG on 69% FG with 11.0 APG in the past two games. He has shot horribly versus Portland this season though, making just 9-of-29 shots (31%) and 1-of-11 threes in the two meetings. PF Kenneth Faried (12.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG) also had a double-double in Monday’s win over the Lakers, recording 12 points and 10 rebounds. He’s averaged 13.5 PPG (55% FG) and 9.5 RPG in two meetings with the Blazers this season. SG Wilson Chandler (10.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) scored a team-high 23 points in Monday’s victory starting in place of Gallinari, and now has 18.7 PPG (52% FG) and 4.7 RPG in the past three games. Chandler has 16.5 PPG and 6.0 RPG in two meetings with Portland since joining the Nuggets.
Portland also likes to speed up the tempo, as it takes 82.0 field goals per game, but makes just 44.2% of its shots (17th in NBA) and scores only 96.8 PPG (also 17th in league). This team also struggles to defend, allowing 99.7 PPG (21st in NBA) on a whopping 46.6% FG (3rd-worst in league). And in the past five games, the Blazers are surrendering 103.0 PPG on 49% FG. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (20.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG) is the team’s best player, but he has been slumping a bit in the past four games, scoring just 15.0 PPG (36% FG) with a paltry 4.5 RPG. But he destroyed the Nuggets when these teams met last month, scoring 30 points (11-for-22 FG, 8-for-8 FT) with eight rebounds and six assists. Rookie PG Damian Lillard (18.3 PPG, 6.5 APG) has also been misfiring in his past four games, making just 36% FG and 4-of-20 threes. He’s done a much better job running the offense though, especially in the past two games where Lillard has 13 assists and just three turnovers. He’ll have a difficult time containing Ty Lawson, and Lillard has also shot poorly in the season series, making just 8-of-28 FG (29%) in two games against Denver. SG Wesley Matthews (15.0 PPG) is starting to get back into the groove despite dealing with an ankle injury, posting 19.5 PPG on 13-of-21 FG (62%) and 9-of-15 threes in the past two conetsts, while C J.J. Hickson (13.0 PPG, 10.4 RPG) continues to provide the muscle inside with three straight double-doubles (19.3 PPG, 12.7 RPG). Hickson also has 18.5 PPG and 15.5 RPG in two meetings with Denver this season. SF Nicolas Batum (15.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.8 APG) has filled up the stat sheet in his past three contests with 18.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.0 APG and 1.3 SPG. He’s posted two great games versus the Nuggets this season too, putting up 22.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 5.0 APG.
Source: Statfox
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